2034: A Novel of the Next World War by Elliot Ackerman and James G. Stavridis
320 pages, Hardcover
Published: March, 2021 by Penguin Press
This was an impulse checkout from the library. I stopped when I saw the title, and decided I was curious what these two authors, who were not speculative writers before these two books (including the sequel 2054) would do with the topic. It is one thing to get a SF writer's ideas of a future war, but even better to get the point of view of people who have fought the wars.
I was reading this as the country teeters on the edge of WW III. There is the factor of curiosity about what they get right and wrong, like predicting that the Strait of Hormuz would become important, and I hope they are wrong that China and the U.S. would not start launching nukes at each other.
One of the authors, Stavidis is a former Admiral, and Ackerman was a former Marine Raider and CIA Special Activities Officer. So their experience in modern warfare is what makes the book interesting. This novel is essentially the story from multiple POVs about a global war that is mostly between China and the U.S., so it is impossible to hold these authors to these predictions at this point. Who knew we would have a president pressured by Israel at the time when he was overconfident coming off of the Venezuela adventure?
The novel starts with some silly info-dumps and world-building. Ackerman is an experienced author, but maybe not skilled at tricks genre writers have come to learn for doing this stuff seamlessly. The writing/editing of this book smooths out enough. It is never high art, but that is not exactly the point. It seems that this novel was meant as a warning about how scary a global conflict with China could be.
While China is the main opposition in this war, the alliance they have with Iran is where we get into things that look familiar. When a U.S. pilot is captured by the Iranians and the Chinese sink a U.S. destroyer, I started to worry this would be a biased Rah-rah America book that painted the Chinese as nothing but evil. The book had a couple of Chinese characters and could’ve benefited from more, but it certainly did shy from having the Americas make mistakes or do wrong in the war.
Lin Bao, the main Chinese character, has a bit of a silly backstory that makes his rise in CCP unlikely. For a book that turns the Chinese into the villains of the piece the authors don’t come off as very understanding of the culture. Not saying I do, but I raised my eyebrows a few times at that. Also, characters from India and Iran made me suspicious. Despite giving Americans some negative actions, there is a certain global narcissism about American this book feels.
So what was the main problem with this book? In a book about the future of warfare, there is little to zero drone warfare, and my dudes, that is how Iran, Ukraine, and Russia are currently fighting. I know that from watching the news, and maybe these guys are to far out of the game.
Americans' overconfidence is a part of the novel.
“All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined, Lincoln had said, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest, with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from the Ohio or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years. . . . If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.”
We have certainly seen this in Iran, but does this novel understand what China thinks?
“But our strength is what it has always been—our judicious patience. The Americans are incapable of behaving patiently. They change their government and their policies as often as the seasons. Their dysfunctional civil discourse is unable to deliver an international strategy that endures for more than a handful of years. They’re governed by their emotions, by their blithe morality and belief in their precious indispensability. This is a fine disposition for a nation known for making movies, but not for a nation to survive as we have through the millennia. . . . And where will America be after today? I believe in a thousand years it won’t even be remembered as a country. It will simply be remembered as a moment. A fleeting moment.”
This remains to be seen. But this novel doesn’t feel like it is predicting future warfare. I read it because I wanted to understand how war will be fought in the future. All this novel did was make me feel like I was seeing the shortcomings of the story. One thing it did nail…
“The America that we believe ourselves to be is no longer the America that we are. . .”
Can't say I can recommend this book, but it is better than the sequel, but that is a review for another day.
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